We Calculated the Real First-Year Return of 271 Credit Cards on Average U.S. Spending

Most "best credit card" lists are really ranked by which card pays the site the biggest commission. We did the opposite here. We took every one of the 271 major U.S. credit cards in our database, ran them all through the same realistic spending profile, and ranked them by the dollars they would actually put back in your pocket, counting every point as a flat 1 cent.

We split the results into two tables. The main ranking covers the 191 everyday cards, the cash-back and flexible-points cards you can use anywhere. The 80 co-branded airline and hotel cards are ranked in a separate table, because their welcome bonuses are paid in miles or hotel points that we value at a flat 1 cent. That makes their one-time first-year figure look huge, but it is locked to one airline or hotel brand and is not comparable to a flexible card you can redeem against any purchase.

$554
average first-year return across 191 everyday cards
$1,750
best first-year card (Crypto.com Obsidian)
19
cards that lose money on rewards alone after the fee
$1,750
best $0-annual-fee card first year
Methodology. We modeled an average U.S. household spending $29,160 per year on a card ($6,000 groceries, $3,000 dining, $2,160 gas, $1,800 travel, $600 streaming, $720 transit, $480 pharmacy, and $14,400 everything else). Every point and mile is valued at a flat 1 cent, the same honest standard for every card, with no inflated airline or hotel valuations. First-year value = category earnings + the welcome bonus you would realistically hit at this spend, minus the annual fee. Ongoing value strips out the one-time bonus to show recurring earning power.

The welcome bonus does most of the work in year one

The single biggest driver of first-year value is the sign-up bonus, not the everyday earn rate. That is why a card can top the list one year and fall back to the middle the next. Compare the two right-hand columns in the table below: the gap between a card's first-year and ongoing value is almost entirely its welcome bonus.

19 premium cards lose money on rewards alone

This is the part most "best card" roundups skip over. Counting only rewards minus the annual fee, 19 cards finish the year in the red, led by The Centurion® Card from American Express, American Express® Platinum, American Express® Platinum for Morgan Stanley, American Express® Platinum for Schwab. That does not make them bad cards. It just means they only pay off if you use their credits and perks, the lounge access, the travel and dining credits, the free hotel nights. If those are not things you will actually use, you are paying a fee to earn less than a free card would hand you.

No-annual-fee cards hold up better than you would think

The best $0-fee card returns $1,750 in year one, and there is no fee to dig out of first, so all of it is yours. Several no-fee cards even out-earn premium cards once the welcome bonus is spent. If you are not going to use a premium card's perks, a no-fee card is the smarter one to keep for the long haul.

Full results: all 191 everyday cards, ranked by first-year value

Run these numbers against your own spending in the Cardocrat calculator. Your personal ranking shifts based on where you actually spend.

#CardAnnual feeAnnual earnWelcome bonusFirst-yearOngoing
1Crypto.com Obsidian$0$1,750$0$1,750$1,750
2Crypto.com Icy White / Frosted Rose Gold$0$1,458$0$1,458$1,458
3Ink Business Unlimited®$0$437$1,000$1,437$437
4Ink Business Cash®$0$343$1,000$1,343$343
5American Express® Gold$325$598$1,000$1,273$273
6Capital One Venture$95$583$750$1,238$488
7American Express® Platinum$895$364$1,750$1,219-$531
8Chase Sapphire Preferred®$95$545$750$1,200$450
9Capital One Spark Cash Select$0$437$750$1,187$437
10GM Rewards™ Mastercard®$0$875$300$1,175$875
11U.S. Bank Triple Cash Rewards Business Card$0$395$750$1,145$395
12U.S. Bank Business Altitude® Connect Visa Signature®$95$440$750$1,095$345
13Wells Fargo Signify Business Cash℠$0$583$500$1,083$583
14Citi Strata Premier℠$95$551$600$1,056$456
15Crypto.com Royal Indigo / Jade Green$300$1,312$0$1,012$1,012
16TD Business Solutions Credit Card$0$583$400$983$583
17Crypto.com Ruby Steel$50$1,021$0$971$971
18Bank of America® Premium Rewards® Credit Card$95$461$600$966$366
19One Key+™ Card$99$713$350$964$614
20U.S. Bank Business Leverage® Visa Signature®$95$434$600$939$339
21Capital One Venture X$395$583$750$938$188
22Business Advantage Travel Rewards World Mastercard®$0$437$500$937$437
23Capital One VentureOne Business$0$437$500$937$437
24Wells Fargo Autograph Journey℠$95$424$600$929$329
25Royal ONE Plus™ Visa Signature®$99$403$600$904$304
26Navy Federal Flagship Rewards Visa Signature®$49$601$350$902$552
27Bilt Palladium$495$583$800$888$88
28PenFed Pathfinder® Rewards Visa Signature® Card$95$482$500$887$387
29American Express® Blue Cash Preferred$95$679$300$884$584
30One Key™ Card$0$632$250$882$632
31HSBC Premier World Mastercard®$95$473$500$878$378
32Discover it® Miles$0$437$437$875$437
33Business Advantage Customized Cash Rewards Mastercard®$0$365$500$865$365
34Navy Federal cashRewards Credit Card$0$583$250$833$583
35American Express Blue Business Cash Card$0$583$250$833$583
36PNC Cash Unlimited® Visa Signature® Credit Card$0$583$250$833$583
37Verizon Visa® Card$0$626$200$826$626
38Robinhood Gold Card$50$875$0$825$825
39USAA Eagle Navigator® Visa Signature®$95$601$300$806$506
40Citi Custom Cash℠$0$791$0$791$791
41Citi Double Cash®$0$583$200$783$583
42TD Double Up Credit Card$0$583$200$783$583
43Credit One Bank® Omni Rewards American Express® Card$0$583$200$783$583
44Wells Fargo Active Cash®$0$583$200$783$583
45Evergreen® Credit Card$0$583$200$783$583
46SDFCU Premium Cash Back+ Visa Signature® Card$0$583$200$783$583
47Disney® Inspire Visa® Card$149$425$500$776$276
48Shell Performance Elite World Mastercard®$0$716$50$766$716
49USAA Eagle Adapt™ Credit Card$0$563$200$763$563
50Disney® Premier Visa® Card$49$403$400$754$354
51U.S. Bank Cash+®$0$492$250$742$492
52Prime Visa$0$590$150$740$590
53Bank of America Business Advantage Unlimited Cash Rewards$0$437$300$737$437
54Capital One Savor$0$484$250$734$484
55American Express® Blue Business Plus$0$583$150$733$583
56Navy Federal More Rewards American Express® Card$0$529$200$729$529
57PenFed Platinum Rewards Visa Signature® Card$0$570$150$720$570
58Citi Strata℠$0$511$200$711$511
59U.S. Bank Altitude® Connect Visa Signature®$0$506$200$706$506
60AAA Travel Advantage Visa Signature®$0$594$100$694$594
61Bank of America® Customized Cash Rewards$0$491$200$691$491
62Chase Freedom Unlimited®$0$490$200$690$490
63USAA Preferred Cash Rewards Visa Signature®$0$437$250$687$437
64Bank of America® Travel Rewards Credit Card$0$437$250$687$437
65AAA Daily Advantage Visa Signature®$0$587$100$687$587
66Discover it® Secured Credit Card$0$343$343$686$343
67Discover it® Chrome$0$343$343$686$343
68PenFed Power Cash Rewards Visa Signature® Card$0$583$100$683$583
69PNC Cash Rewards® Visa® Credit Card$0$476$200$676$476
70Royal ONE™ Visa Signature®$0$373$300$673$373
71U.S. Bank Altitude® Go Visa Signature®$0$469$200$669$469
72Bank of America® Premium Rewards® Elite Credit Card$550$461$750$661-$89
73Wells Fargo Autograph℠$0$457$200$657$457
74American Express® Blue Cash Everyday$0$455$200$655$455
75American Express® Green$150$402$400$652$252
76Capital One Quicksilver$0$437$200$637$437
77Bank of America® Unlimited Cash Rewards Credit Card$0$437$200$637$437
78Regions Cash Rewards Visa® Signature® Credit Card$0$437$200$637$437
79Upgrade Cash Rewards Visa®$0$437$200$637$437
80Regions Prestige Visa® Signature® Credit Card$0$433$200$633$433
81Amtrak Guest Rewards® Preferred Mastercard®$99$329$400$630$230
82Priceline VIP Rewards™ Visa® Card$0$415$200$615$415
83TD Cash Credit Card$0$412$200$612$412
84Chase Sapphire Reserve®$795$406$1,000$611-$389
85Bilt Obsidian$95$490$200$595$395
86AT&T Points Plus® Card from Citi$0$395$200$595$395
87Citi Strata Elite℠$595$439$750$594-$156
88SoFi Credit Card (Unlimited 2%)$0$583$0$583$583
89Discover it® Cash Back$0$292$292$583$292
90Discover it® Student Cash Back$0$292$292$583$292
91U.S. Bank Smartly™ Visa Signature®$0$583$0$583$583
92Apple Card$0$583$0$583$583
93Fidelity® Rewards Visa Signature® Card$0$583$0$583$583
94Fifth Third Preferred Cash/Back Card$0$583$0$583$583
95Key Cashback Credit Card$0$583$0$583$583
96T-Mobile Visa® Signature Card$0$583$0$583$583
97Carnival® World Mastercard®$0$382$200$582$382
98Citizens Summit® World Mastercard®$0$572$0$572$572
99Capital One VentureOne Rewards$0$364$200$564$364
100Truist Enjoy Beyond Visa® Credit Card$95$358$300$563$263
101Chase Freedom Flex℠$0$361$200$561$361
102Affinity Cash Rewards Visa® Signature Card$0$409$150$559$409
103TD First Class℠ Visa Signature® Credit Card$89$388$250$549$299
104Capital One Quicksilver Student$0$437$100$537$437
105REI Co-op Mastercard$0$437$100$537$437
106Blue Cash® Card from American Express$0$535$0$535$535
107Coinbase One Card$50$583$0$533$533
108Amtrak Guest Rewards® Mastercard®$0$322$200$522$322
109Amazon Visa$0$470$50$520$470
110Truist Enjoy Travel Visa® Credit Card$0$310$200$510$310
111HSBC Elite World Elite Mastercard®$495$394$600$499-$101
112Samsung Galaxy Card$0$298$200$498$298
113PlayStation® Visa® Credit Card$0$394$100$494$394
114Norwegian Cruise Line® World Mastercard®$0$292$200$492$292
115Key2More Rewards Credit Card$0$292$200$492$292
116Upgrade Triple Cash Rewards Visa®$0$292$200$492$292
117Capital One Venture Business$95$583$0$488$488
118Fifth Third 1.67% Cash/Back Card$0$487$0$487$487
119Rakuten American Express® Card$0$382$100$482$382
120Gemini Credit Card$0$476$0$476$476
121BJ's One+™ Mastercard®$110$583$0$473$473
122bp rewards Visa®$0$472$0$472$472
123OnePay CashRewards Mastercard$0$437$35$472$437
124Sam's Club® Mastercard®$0$438$30$468$438
125Chase Freedom Rise®$0$437$25$462$437
126AARP® Travel Rewards Mastercard®$0$358$100$458$358
127Ollo Everyday Rewards Mastercard®$0$455$0$455$455
128Wells Fargo Attune℠$0$450$0$450$450
129Capital One SavorOne$39$484$0$445$445
130Venmo Visa® Signature Credit Card$0$442$0$442$442
131Disney® Visa® Card$0$292$150$442$292
132USAA Cashback Rewards Plus American Express® Card$0$438$0$438$438
133Capital One Quicksilver Secured Cash Rewards$0$437$0$437$437
134PayPal Cashback Mastercard$0$437$0$437$437
135Crypto.com Midnight Blue$0$437$0$437$437
136Huntington Cashback Credit Card$0$437$0$437$437
137AARP® Essential Rewards Mastercard®$0$335$100$435$335
138Capital One Spark Cash Plus$150$583$0$433$433
139PNC points® Visa® Credit Card$0$233$200$433$233
140Capital One Savor (Legacy $95)$95$520$0$425$425
141My Best Buy Visa® Card$0$425$0$425$425
142Xbox Mastercard®$0$364$60$424$364
143Caesars Rewards® Visa Signature®$0$322$100$422$322
144Chime Credit Builder Visa®$0$421$0$421$421
145SoFi Everyday Cash Rewards Credit Card$0$412$0$412$412
146DoorDash Rewards Mastercard®$0$412$0$412$412
147Bilt Blue$0$310$100$410$310
148Instacart Mastercard®$0$349$50$399$349
149Capital One QuicksilverOne$39$437$0$398$398
150Truist Enjoy Cash Visa® Credit Card$0$395$0$395$395
151Princess Cruises® Rewards Visa®$0$292$100$392$292
152Ink Business Premier$195$583$0$388$388
153U.S. Bank Business Altitude® Power Visa Signature®$195$583$0$388$388
154Costco Anywhere Visa®$65$452$0$387$387
155Costco Anywhere Visa® Business Card$65$452$0$387$387
156Navy Federal GO REWARDS® Credit Card$0$373$0$373$373
157Caesars Rewards® Prestige Visa Signature®$149$322$200$373$173
158American Express EveryDay®$0$352$0$352$352
159Bass Pro Shops CLUB / Cabela's CLUB Mastercard$0$292$60$352$292
160American Express Business Green Rewards Card$95$292$150$347$197
161Target Circle™ Card$0$292$50$342$292
162American Express EveryDay® Preferred$95$433$0$338$338
163Citi Dividend® Card$0$292$0$292$292
164ExxonMobil™ Smart Card+™$0$292$0$292$292
165Techron Advantage® Visa® Card$0$292$0$292$292
166Huntington Voice Rewards Credit Card$0$292$0$292$292
167Amex Graphite Business Cash Unlimited Card$295$583$0$288$288
168Citizens Summit Reserve® World Elite Mastercard®$295$581$0$286$286
169American Express® Platinum for Morgan Stanley$895$364$800$269-$531
170American Express® Platinum for Schwab$895$364$800$269-$531
171Fortiva® Mastercard®$49$292$0$243$243
172Ink Business Preferred®$95$328$0$233$233
173Alibaba.com Business Edge Credit Card$199$322$100$223$123
174Surge® Platinum Mastercard®$96$292$0$196$196
175Credit One Bank® Platinum Visa®$99$292$0$193$193
176Capital One Venture X Business$395$583$0$188$188
177American Express® Business Gold$375$500$0$125$125
178Capital One Platinum Secured$0$0$0$0$0
179Citi® Secured Mastercard®$0$0$0$0$0
180Citi Prestige® Card$495$484$0-$11-$11
181First PREMIER® Bank Mastercard®$45$0$0-$45-$45
182Total Visa® Card$48$0$0-$48-$48
183U.S. Bank Altitude® Reserve Visa Infinite®$400$328$0-$72-$72
184Milestone® Mastercard®$99$0$0-$99-$99
185Indigo® Mastercard®$99$0$0-$99-$99
186Destiny® Mastercard®$99$0$0-$99-$99
187Robinhood Platinum Card$695$412$0-$283-$283
188Chase Sapphire Reserve for Business℠$795$436$0-$359-$359
189J.P. Morgan Reserve Card$795$388$0-$407-$407
190American Express® Business Platinum$895$364$0-$531-$531
191The Centurion® Card from American Express$5,000$292$0-$4,708-$4,708

Co-branded airline and hotel cards, ranked separately

These 80 cards are tied to a single airline or hotel program. Their welcome bonuses are large hauls of miles or points, which we value at a flat 1 cent each, so their first-year figures average $974, well above the everyday cards. Treat that with caution: the bonus is worth that much only if you can use it with that one brand, and the ongoing earn rate is what matters once the bonus is gone. We keep them in their own table so a one-time point bonus does not crowd a flexible cash-back card off the main list.

#CardAnnual feeAnnual earnWelcome bonusFirst-yearOngoing
1Marriott Bonvoy Boundless®$95$671$1,750$2,326$576
2Hilton Honors Surpass®$150$1,174$1,300$2,324$1,024
3IHG One Rewards Premier$99$1,014$1,400$2,315$915
4IHG One Rewards Premier Business$99$1,014$1,400$2,315$915
5Hilton Honors Aspire$550$1,067$1,750$2,267$517
6Hilton Honors American Express Business Card$195$1,014$1,300$2,119$819
7Hilton Honors$0$1,062$1,000$2,062$1,062
8Marriott Bonvoy Business® American Express® Card$125$686$1,500$2,061$561
9Marriott Bonvoy Bevy™ American Express® Card$250$763$1,350$1,863$513
10Wyndham Rewards Earner® Plus Card$75$680$1,000$1,605$605
11Wyndham Rewards Earner® Premier Card$395$680$1,200$1,485$285
12Marriott Bonvoy Brilliant®$650$544$1,500$1,394-$106
13Marriott Bonvoy Bold®$0$763$600$1,363$763
14Marriott Bonvoy Bountiful®$250$763$850$1,363$513
15IHG One Rewards Traveler Credit Card$0$431$800$1,231$431
16Wyndham Rewards Earner® Business Card$149$378$1,000$1,229$229
17United℠ Business Card$150$368$1,000$1,218$218
18Aeroplan® Credit Card$95$508$750$1,163$413
19Best Western Rewards® Premium Visa Signature® Card$89$746$480$1,137$657
20Delta SkyMiles® Platinum Business$195$328$1,000$1,133$133
21Delta SkyMiles® Gold$150$382$900$1,132$232
22Choice Privileges® Mastercard®$0$527$600$1,127$527
23Choice Privileges® Select Mastercard®$95$618$600$1,123$523
24JetBlue Business Card$99$412$800$1,113$313
25Delta SkyMiles® Gold Business$150$340$900$1,090$190
26Atmos Rewards Visa Business$70$356$800$1,086$286
27British Airways Visa Signature® Card$95$328$850$1,083$233
28Aer Lingus Visa Signature® Card$95$328$850$1,083$233
29Iberia Visa Signature® Card$95$328$850$1,083$233
30Citi® / AAdvantage® Platinum Select®$99$343$800$1,044$244
31Delta SkyMiles® Platinum$350$382$1,000$1,032$32
32Hawaiian Airlines® Bank of Hawaii World Elite Mastercard®$99$403$700$1,004$304
33World of Hyatt$95$340$750$995$245
34JetBlue Plus$99$382$700$983$283
35Atmos Rewards Summit$395$352$1,000$957-$43
36Atmos Rewards Ascent$95$326$700$931$231
37Frontier Airlines World Mastercard®$99$424$600$925$325
38Citi® / AAdvantage® Globe™ Mastercard®$350$365$900$915$15
39Citi® / AAdvantage Business™ World Elite Mastercard®$99$361$650$912$262
40Southwest Rapid Rewards® Performance Business$299$404$800$905$105
41Air France KLM Visa Signature® Card$89$482$500$893$393
42Virgin Red Rewards World Elite Mastercard®$99$388$600$889$289
43JetBlue Premier$499$382$1,000$883-$117
44United Club℠ Business Card$695$446$1,100$851-$249
45Southwest Rapid Rewards® Premier Business$149$379$600$830$230
46Miles & More® World Elite Mastercard®$89$310$600$821$221
47Wyndham Rewards Earner® Card$0$515$300$815$515
48World of Hyatt Business Credit Card$199$404$600$805$205
49Breeze Easy™ Visa Signature® Card$89$382$500$793$293
50Southwest Rapid Rewards® Premier$149$382$550$783$233
51Southwest Rapid Rewards® Plus$99$373$500$774$274
52United℠ Explorer$150$322$600$772$172
53Best Western Rewards® Visa Signature® Card$0$583$180$763$583
54Allegiant Allways Rewards Visa®$59$358$450$749$299
55Avelo Airlines World Elite Mastercard®$99$583$250$734$484
56United℠ Gateway$0$320$400$720$320
57Southwest Rapid Rewards® Priority$229$343$600$714$114
58United℠ Quest$350$346$700$696-$4
59Avianca LifeMiles American Express® Elite Card$249$340$600$691$91
60Avianca LifeMiles American Express® Card$99$382$400$683$283
61LATAM Airlines World Elite Mastercard®$99$366$400$667$267
62Qatar Airways Privilege Club Signature Credit Card$99$322$400$623$223
63TAP Miles&Go American Express® Credit Card$79$299$400$620$220
64Emirates Skywards Rewards World Elite Mastercard®$99$310$400$611$211
65Cathay World Elite Mastercard®$99$322$380$603$223
66Sun Country Airlines® Visa Signature® Card$89$409$250$570$320
67United℠ Club$695$340$900$545-$355
68Emirates Skywards Premium World Elite Mastercard®$499$310$700$511-$189
69Citi® / AAdvantage® MileUp®$0$352$150$502$352
70JetBlue Card$0$382$100$482$382
71LATAM Airlines Mastercard®$0$329$150$479$329
72Delta SkyMiles® Blue$0$322$100$422$322
73Citi® / AAdvantage® Executive$595$292$700$397-$303
74Qatar Airways Privilege Club Infinite Credit Card$499$352$500$353-$147
75JAL USA CARD (Premium)$85$310$100$325$225
76Turkish Airlines Miles&Smiles Premier Visa Signature® Card$99$400$0$301$301
77Marriott Bonvoy Premier® Credit Card$85$340$0$255$255
78The Ritz-Carlton® Credit Card$450$544$0$94$94
79Delta SkyMiles® Reserve Business$550$328$0-$222-$222
80Delta SkyMiles® Reserve$650$292$0-$358-$358
Caveats. This is a model, not a guarantee. It values all points at 1 cent (generous for some hotel programs, conservative for premium-cabin airline redemptions), assumes you hit each welcome bonus, and does not count the dollar value of perks like lounge access, travel credits, or insurance, which can be substantial. It is meant to isolate one question honestly: what do these cards return in pure rewards on typical spending?

Data and calculations by Cardocrat. Card offers verified against issuer sources as of August 2026. Free to cite with a link to this page.

Bryce Casson

Bryce Casson, Founder of Cardocrat. About the author.